Key points – Share markets have fallen further on US President Trump’s worse than expected tariff policies. – Further weakness is likely but at some point Trump is likely to pivot towards focussing more on his market friendly policies and the Fed will step in with lower interest rates. –
Key points – Many measures were pre-announced, but key new measures include tax cuts from 2026-27 & more cost of living support. – While the revenue windfall is expected to continue, it’s mostly being spent on new measures resulting a return to deficit of $27.6bn this financial year and $42.1bn
Key points – CoreLogic data shows average home prices rose 0.3% in February, after a brief three-month downturn of just 0.4%. – The upswing came in anticipation of, and then confirmation of, an RBA rate cut which boosted buyer confidence. – Annual growth in rents slowed to 4.1%yoy, the slowest
Key points – Trump’s tariff war has potentially another 6-9 months to go at least. This poses an ongoing threat to shares, but their relative resilience so far risks emboldening Trump to do even more. – Even if Australian exports are not exempted from US tariffs the direct economic impact
Key points – The $A has been hit since September by the return of Trump, a hawkish pivot by the Fed versus the RBA and concerns about the outlook for iron ore prices. – We doubt the fall is significant enough to boost inflation much and shouldn’t stop the RBA
Key points – The key themes for 2024 were: better than feared growth; global divergence; more disinflation; falling interest rates but with Australia lagging; and more geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared. As in 2023, returns were strong. – 2025 is likely to see positive returns, but after
Key points – The economic and financial environment today is more challenging than when Trump first took over in 2017: inflation is a bit higher, the budget deficit is worse, bond yields are higher and shares are more expensive. – He also faces constraints from: rising bond yields; not wanting
Key points – The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency brings the prospect of more US tax cuts and deregulation, but also more tariff hikes and trade wars and policy uncertainty. – His win was not the surprise it was in 2016, and markets have moved to adjust
Key points – Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings ratios – are key drivers of medium-term investment returns. – Valuation starting points for term deposits and bonds have improved. For shares they suggest constrained return potential, particularly from US shares but Australian, European and Chinese shares
Key points – Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong. – As a result, it’s often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head. – The easiest way to avoid many of these mistakes
Key points – A move towards more aggressive fiscal policy stimulus and property support measures should help drive a mild cyclical upswing in China’s economy. – However, it’s doubtful it will be enough to reverse longer term structural problems facing China – around excess saving, demographics and growing state control.
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points – The US election has significant potential to impact markets. A Harris victory would mean more of the same, but a Trump victory could lead to uncertainty particularly around trade. – Australia would be vulnerable
