Key points – Many measures were pre-announced, but key new measures include tax cuts from 2026-27 & more cost of living support. – While the revenue windfall is expected to continue, it’s mostly being spent on new measures resulting a return to deficit of $27.6bn this financial year and $42.1bn
Key points – CoreLogic data shows average home prices rose 0.3% in February, after a brief three-month downturn of just 0.4%. – The upswing came in anticipation of, and then confirmation of, an RBA rate cut which boosted buyer confidence. – Annual growth in rents slowed to 4.1%yoy, the slowest
Key points – Trump’s tariff war has potentially another 6-9 months to go at least. This poses an ongoing threat to shares, but their relative resilience so far risks emboldening Trump to do even more. – Even if Australian exports are not exempted from US tariffs the direct economic impact
Key points – The $A has been hit since September by the return of Trump, a hawkish pivot by the Fed versus the RBA and concerns about the outlook for iron ore prices. – We doubt the fall is significant enough to boost inflation much and shouldn’t stop the RBA
Key points – The key themes for 2024 were: better than feared growth; global divergence; more disinflation; falling interest rates but with Australia lagging; and more geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared. As in 2023, returns were strong. – 2025 is likely to see positive returns, but after
Key points – The economic and financial environment today is more challenging than when Trump first took over in 2017: inflation is a bit higher, the budget deficit is worse, bond yields are higher and shares are more expensive. – He also faces constraints from: rising bond yields; not wanting
Key points – The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency brings the prospect of more US tax cuts and deregulation, but also more tariff hikes and trade wars and policy uncertainty. – His win was not the surprise it was in 2016, and markets have moved to adjust
Key points – Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings ratios – are key drivers of medium-term investment returns. – Valuation starting points for term deposits and bonds have improved. For shares they suggest constrained return potential, particularly from US shares but Australian, European and Chinese shares
Key points – Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong. – As a result, it’s often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head. – The easiest way to avoid many of these mistakes
Key points – A move towards more aggressive fiscal policy stimulus and property support measures should help drive a mild cyclical upswing in China’s economy. – However, it’s doubtful it will be enough to reverse longer term structural problems facing China – around excess saving, demographics and growing state control.
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points – The US election has significant potential to impact markets. A Harris victory would mean more of the same, but a Trump victory could lead to uncertainty particularly around trade. – Australia would be vulnerable
– but what about the Israel/Iran conflict & other risks? Key points Recession risks, the escalating Israel conflict, the US election along with still stretched valuations mean a high risk of another share market correction and continued volatility. The expansion of the war around Israel and Iran attacking Israel with
