Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Introduction he past financial year saw a solid rebound in investment returns, after the negative returns of the 2021-22 financial year. This note reviews the past 12 months in investment markets and looks at the outlook. Inflation worries
Why the worry? What’s the risk? And what would it mean for investors? Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Introduction The past few weeks have seen lots of talk again about a recession – particularly in Australia. This has been a recurring theme over
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Introduction From their lows last year, global and US shares are up 17% and Australian shares are up 13% as investors have been buoyed by evidence of peaking inflation, anticipation that central banks are near the top, resilient
– rising prosperity (and smashed avocado) versus housing affordability Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Australia’s property fascination Australians have long had a fascination with property. It’s evident in waves of speculative booms and busts that periodically grip our cities. For example, this was
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Over the last 10 and 20 years, returns from Australian unlisted commercial property have averaged 9% pa. This in part reflected the search for decent income bearing investments by investors in response to falling interest rates
– return to surplus with fastest improvement since end of WW2, cost of living help but structural deficits remain (albeit smaller) Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMPDiana Mousina – Deputy Chief Economist, AMP Introduction This Budget yet again benefits from a huge revenue windfall
Prices look to have bottomed as the supply shortfall dominates, but watch rates and unemployment Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Yet again the Australian residential property market is surprising with its resilience and defying forecasts for sharp falls. After falling 9.1%
– it’s not clear the proposed reforms will lead to a better outcome for the Australian economy Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction The unveiling of the independent Review of the RBA – “An RBA fit the future” – has received much
– Inflation, interest rates, recession, the US debt ceiling, geopolitics, house prices and other issues Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Investment markets continue to be buffeted by multiple uncertainties, but so far returns this year have been okay as shares have
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Every so often the degree of uncertainty around investment markets surges and that’s been the case for more than a year now reflecting the combination of high inflation, rapid interest rate hikes, the high and rising
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction From their high in April to their low last month national average home prices have fallen 9.1% making it their biggest fall in CoreLogic records going back to 1980. Capital city average prices were down 9.7%
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction The RBA raised its cash rate by another 0.25% taking it to 3.35%. This is the ninth consecutive rate hike in a row over ten months totalling 325 basis points and exceeds the 2002-2008 tightening cycle
