Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Over the last 10 and 20 years, returns from Australian unlisted commercial property have averaged 9% pa. This in part reflected the search for decent income bearing investments by investors in response to falling interest rates
– return to surplus with fastest improvement since end of WW2, cost of living help but structural deficits remain (albeit smaller) Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMPDiana Mousina – Deputy Chief Economist, AMP Introduction This Budget yet again benefits from a huge revenue windfall
Prices look to have bottomed as the supply shortfall dominates, but watch rates and unemployment Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Yet again the Australian residential property market is surprising with its resilience and defying forecasts for sharp falls. After falling 9.1%
– it’s not clear the proposed reforms will lead to a better outcome for the Australian economy Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction The unveiling of the independent Review of the RBA – “An RBA fit the future” – has received much
– Inflation, interest rates, recession, the US debt ceiling, geopolitics, house prices and other issues Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Investment markets continue to be buffeted by multiple uncertainties, but so far returns this year have been okay as shares have
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Every so often the degree of uncertainty around investment markets surges and that’s been the case for more than a year now reflecting the combination of high inflation, rapid interest rate hikes, the high and rising
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction From their high in April to their low last month national average home prices have fallen 9.1% making it their biggest fall in CoreLogic records going back to 1980. Capital city average prices were down 9.7%
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction The RBA raised its cash rate by another 0.25% taking it to 3.35%. This is the ninth consecutive rate hike in a row over ten months totalling 325 basis points and exceeds the 2002-2008 tightening cycle
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Since the March 2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) low in share markets, Australian shares are up 138%, compared to a 310% gain in global shares in local currency terms and a 500% gain in US shares.
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction After very strong returns in 2021 thanks to reopening from Covid restrictions and stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies, 2022 was a rough year reflecting high inflation, a surge in interest rates and bond yields, geopolitical issues
Expect a rough ride, but better returns Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital 2022 – from Covid to inflation & surging interest rates The good news is that 2022 finally saw the world shake off the grip of Coronavirus as it transitioned from
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital The slump in home prices continues After surging by 28.6% from their pandemic lows early this year to record highs on the back of record low interest rates, home prices are continuing to plunge on the back
