Introduction It’s now two years since the RBA first started to raise interest rates resulting in the biggest tightening cycle since the late 1980s. Rates have gone much higher and stayed high for much longer than I thought would be the case as Australian households proved more resilient than expected
Another surplus, but bigger medium term deficits with more big spending, including on a “Future Made in Australia” Introduction The Budget is aimed at trying to lower inflation in the near term but supporting Government priorities including formally launching a “Future Made in Australia” (FMIA) over the medium term. In
– shares are vulnerable to a bout of volatility but here’s five reasons why the trend will likely remain up Introduction From their lows last October, it has been relatively smooth sailing for shares – with US shares up 28%, global shares up 25% & Australian shares up 17% to
Introduction The Australian housing market has started the year on a solid note with national home prices up 1.6% over the first three months according to CoreLogic. We had thought the drag of high mortgage rates would get the upper hand again but the supply shortfall is continuing to dominate.
Introduction It’s four years since the COVID lockdowns started. The pandemic ended when it morphed into the less deadly Omicron variant in late 2021, but just as a sound can reverberate around a room the effects of the pandemic continue to reverberate in economies. Putting aside the long-term health impacts
Introduction After another 80% or so plunge from its high in 2021 to its low in 2022, Bitcoin has rebounded again to a new record high. The next chart shows Bitcoin’s price relative to the $US since 2010, both on a regular scale and on a log scale to show
Introduction Investing can be scary and confusing at times. But the basic principles of successful investing are timeless and quotes from experts help illuminate these. This note revisits a series on insightful quotes on investing I first started a decade ago. The aim of investing “How many millionaires do you
Introduction Share markets have pushed up to record highs this year, but can it continue? For some time now we have been monitoring seven key charts that are critical for the investment outlook. This note provides an update. Chart 1 – global business conditions PMIs A big driver of how
Introduction The surge in inflation coming out of the pandemic and its subsequent fall has been the dominant driver of investment markets over the last two years – first depressing shares and bonds in 2022 and then enabling them to rebound. But what’s driving the fall, what are the risks
Introduction After poor returns in 2022 on the back of high and rising inflation, a surge in interest rates, the invasion of Ukraine and recession worries, 2023 was a far better year for investors as inflation fell and investment markets anticipated lower interest rates ahead. This saw average balanced growth
Five key themes from 2023 Despite lots of angst at the start of the year, 2023 turned out far better than feared. Key big picture themes of relevance for investors were: Stronger than feared growth. Despite fears that recession was inevitable, on the back of multiple rate hikes and a
Introduction At its December meeting the RBA left the cash rate on hold at 4.35%. This was in line with our own view & that of most economists along with money market expectations. It followed a 13th hike at its November meeting which meant a total of 425 basis points
