Introduction After another 80% or so plunge from its high in 2021 to its low in 2022, Bitcoin has rebounded again to a new record high. The next chart shows Bitcoin’s price relative to the $US since 2010, both on a regular scale and on a log scale to show
Introduction Investing can be scary and confusing at times. But the basic principles of successful investing are timeless and quotes from experts help illuminate these. This note revisits a series on insightful quotes on investing I first started a decade ago. The aim of investing “How many millionaires do you
Introduction Share markets have pushed up to record highs this year, but can it continue? For some time now we have been monitoring seven key charts that are critical for the investment outlook. This note provides an update. Chart 1 – global business conditions PMIs A big driver of how
Introduction The surge in inflation coming out of the pandemic and its subsequent fall has been the dominant driver of investment markets over the last two years – first depressing shares and bonds in 2022 and then enabling them to rebound. But what’s driving the fall, what are the risks
Introduction After poor returns in 2022 on the back of high and rising inflation, a surge in interest rates, the invasion of Ukraine and recession worries, 2023 was a far better year for investors as inflation fell and investment markets anticipated lower interest rates ahead. This saw average balanced growth
Five key themes from 2023 Despite lots of angst at the start of the year, 2023 turned out far better than feared. Key big picture themes of relevance for investors were: Stronger than feared growth. Despite fears that recession was inevitable, on the back of multiple rate hikes and a
Introduction At its December meeting the RBA left the cash rate on hold at 4.35%. This was in line with our own view & that of most economists along with money market expectations. It followed a 13th hike at its November meeting which meant a total of 425 basis points
Introduction Changes in the value of the Australian dollar are important for Australian investors as they directly impact the value of international investments and indirectly effect the performance of domestic assets like shares via the impact on Australia’s global competitiveness. They also impact the cost of travelling overseas and import
Introduction There is an ever-present worry list surrounding investment markets – usually involving some combination of concerns about economic activity, inflation, profits, interest rates, politics, natural calamities, wars, etc. It makes it hard for investors to stay focussed and avoid silly mistakes. Uncertainty is magnified by perennial predictions of a
Introduction The big surprise in the Australian housing market last year was how quickly home prices fell with RBA rate hikes. But the big surprise this year is how they rebounded when most including myself were looking for further falls. October CoreLogic data showed another 0.9% rise in national home
Introduction Starting in the early 1980s investment returns were spectacularly strong. Sure there were bumps along the way like the 1987 share crash, but Australian balanced growth superannuation funds returned an average 14.1% pa in nominal terms and 9.4% pa in real terms (i.e. after inflation) between 1982 and 1999.
Introduction The war in Israel is terrible from a humanitarian perspective. From an economic and investment perspective the concern is that it will lead to a surge in oil prices that will add to inflation, keep interest rates higher for longer and add to the risk of recession. This note
