Introduction Starting in the early 1980s investment returns were spectacularly strong. Sure there were bumps along the way like the 1987 share crash, but Australian balanced growth superannuation funds returned an average 14.1% pa in nominal terms and 9.4% pa in real terms (i.e. after inflation) between 1982 and 1999.
Introduction The war in Israel is terrible from a humanitarian perspective. From an economic and investment perspective the concern is that it will lead to a surge in oil prices that will add to inflation, keep interest rates higher for longer and add to the risk of recession. This note
Introduction In the fourth year of my career the share market crashed. In one day, US shares fell 20% and the day after Australian shares fell 25%. From the months just before to the months just after US shares had a total 35% fall and Australian shares had a 50%
– and how do valuations look now? Introduction It’s logical that the cheaper you buy an asset the higher its prospective return might be. However, this is frequently forgotten with investors often tempted to project recent returns into the future regardless of valuations. A valuation measure for an asset is
Introduction For years now there has been much discussion about poor housing affordability in Australia but debate about how immigration contributes to this issue is often lacking. For a country with abundant land, it’s ironic that housing affordability is so poor. Much of the focus has been on grants and
Introduction At its September meeting the RBA left the cash rate on hold for the third meeting in a row at 4.1%. The pause in interest rates over the last three months comes after the biggest interest rate hiking cycle (of 400 basis points over 14 months) since the late
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP “More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose.” – Woody Allen Introduction The
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Introduction Scepticism about China’s economic success has been an issue for years. But it’s intensified lately on the back of slowing growth, property problems, high debt and falling long term growth potential with talk that China is “teetering
– five reasons why we could still avoid recession Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Introduction Over the last 18 months there has been much talk of recession globally and more recently in Australia. But, despite mild technical recessions (ie, two consecutive quarters of
– why you need to know the difference between leading and lagging economic indicators Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Introduction I reckon many must be confused about the current economic situation. We hear constant talk about how high interest rates and cost of
– where are they now? Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Introduction At the start of this year, we thought shares would have reasonable returns albeit it wouldn’t be smooth sailing given ongoing issues around inflation, interest rates, the risk of recession and geopolitics.
Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Introduction A few years ago, I put together a list of key common-sense points that may be useful in terms of borrowing to finance a home along with broader personal finance and investment decisions we make. Given the
