– but what about the Israel/Iran conflict & other risks? Key points Recession risks, the escalating Israel conflict, the US election along with still stretched valuations mean a high risk of another share market correction and continued volatility. The expansion of the war around Israel and Iran attacking Israel with
Introduction After pushing to record highs, share markets had a sizeable correction into last week – with US and global shares down nearly 9% and Australian shares down nearly 6%. Such volatility is not unusual and is the price we pay for the higher longer term returns shares provide over
Introduction Share markets have seen big falls on the back of rising recession fears. For the last two years there has been constant fears of a recession – or a contraction in economic activity – on the back of central bank rate hikes. With it failing to materialise and inflation
Introduction “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the Government, and I’m here to help.” – Ronald Reagan “We’re going to build factories again, put people to work making real products for American families, made with the hands of American workers. Together we will protect
Introduction It’s often said that shares climb a wall of worry. And with good reason. The next chart shows the Australian All Ords price index since 1900 and despite wars, pandemics, and economic calamities, it’s managed to pick itself up and move on to new highs providing solid long term
Introduction Changes in the value of the Australian dollar are important as they impact Australia’s international export competitiveness and the cost of imports, including that of going on an overseas holiday. They are also important for investors as they directly impact the value of international investments and indirectly impact the
Introduction There has been a wall of worry for investors over the last year but as is often the case share markets climbed it. This resulted in another financial year of strong investment returns in 2023-24. But can it continue? Key themes – lower inflation was the big one Investment
Introduction I have now been in the investment world for 40 years. I first looked at the lessons I learned in 2019. But they haven’t changed much since. Much has happened over the last 40 years with each new crisis invariably labelled “unparalleled” and a “defining event”: the 1987 crash;
Introduction Since the European Union parliamentary election results were released just over a week ago, seeing a rise in support for far-right parties and French President Macron’s surprise decision to call parliamentary elections, Eurozone shares have had a fall of 4.2%, French shares fell 6.2% and the gap between the
Introduction It’s nearly four years since the tumultuous 2020 US presidential election and now the next one is almost upon us. So far investment markets have paid little attention to it or have just focussed on the upside (lower taxes and less regulation) if Trump returns. But that may change
Introduction It’s now two years since the RBA first started to raise interest rates resulting in the biggest tightening cycle since the late 1980s. Rates have gone much higher and stayed high for much longer than I thought would be the case as Australian households proved more resilient than expected
Another surplus, but bigger medium term deficits with more big spending, including on a “Future Made in Australia” Introduction The Budget is aimed at trying to lower inflation in the near term but supporting Government priorities including formally launching a “Future Made in Australia” (FMIA) over the medium term. In
